Economic analysis of the LTS4CN suggests net economic benefits for the public and private sectors, in addition to adaptation and wider social and environmental benefits. These net benefits start from the first year of LTS4CN implementation and reach more than US $4.2 billion in 2050, over 2.8 percent of projected GDP. Wider social and environmental benefits including adaptation co-benefits from LTS4CN actions are estimated to be worth more than the economic benefits, at nearly $7 billion in 2050.
By 2050, the private sector is projected to invest nearly $1.4 billion each year, mostly in energy, transportation, and the forestry sectors, with some significant investment in the IPPU sector. Benefits in terms of private sector operating expenses are over six times the investment and come from a wide range of actions. Significant benefits come from energy efficiency ($3.4 billion), vehicle electrification ($1.1 billion) and rail and freight haulage ($1.1 billion). These are reduced by $800 million in opportunity costs from protecting forests from conversion to agriculture. Public capital expenditures are relatively small, with some ongoing investment in renewable energy, buses, trains, and forestry, in line with the REDD+ Implementation Plan. There are significant ongoing public operating expenses, dominated by rail and haulage ($500 million) and the loss of a fuel tax from the electrification of vehicles ($200 million). These costs are offset by operating profits from renewable energy. The net contribution of agriculture, waste, and IPPU sectors is small.
Implementing the LTS4CN will require substantial public investment over 30 years. A proposed public financing plan suggests devoting 1 percent of new public borrowing to the LTS4CN and making a small shift to divert 3 percent of public spending on economic services to LTS4CN actions. These two measures provide 40-50 percent of financing needs. The financing plan assumes that pricing policies and taxation reform in the transportation sector will be introduced gradually and cover 90 percent of transportation sector costs by 2050.
The financing plan also assumes that international climate finance will meet the remainder of public finance needs. This will cover major investment in public transportation and rail freight, support in the forestry sector, and financing for carbon capture and storage, and grid flexibility. International climate finance is essential for Cambodia to implement the LTS4CN scenario.
Public Sector Costs and Financing (USD million)