About Long-Term Strategy for Carbon Neutrality (LTS4CN)

The LTS4CN suggests that Cambodia could achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 with the FOLU sector providing a total carbon sink of 50 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). The energy sector is expected to be the highest emitter in 2050 at 28 MtCO2e, followed by the agriculture sector at 19 MtCO2e. The waste and IPPU sectors are projected to emit 1.6 and 1.2 MtCO2e, respectively (Table 1).

GHG emissions projection by sector in 2050, BAU, and LTS4CN scenarios
Sector
BAU scenario, MtCO2e
Emissions reduction in LTS4CN scenario, MtCO2e
Emissions balance in LTS4CN scenario, MtCO2e
Agriculture
34.9
-15.6
19.3
Energy
82.7
-54.3
28.2
FOLU
21.2
-71.4
(-50.2)
IPPU
10.7
-9.1
1.6
Waste
6.5
-5.3
1.2
Total
156.0
155.6
0.3

*The FOLU sector uses the national forest definition and soils have been included into the calculations.

Timeline and the targets

Cambodia’s vision for carbon neutrality is largely founded on the continued implementation of existing commitments in the FOLU sector. Execution of the REDD+ Investment Plan2 will drive reduced rates of deforestation as well as an expansion of afforestation and reforestation activities. The FOLU sector is expected to provide a significant carbon sink leaving room for other sectors to incrementally transition towards carbon neutrality.

GHG emission projections, BAU and LTS4CN scenarios

Summary of key mitigation actions per sector

agriculture-icon

Agriculture

  • Less methane-intensive rice cultivars
  • Direct seeding practices
  • Alternate wetting and drying practices
  • Promotion of organic fertilizer and deep fertilizer technology
  • Feed additives for cattle
  • Improved fodder management
  • Introduction of composting technology
forestry-icon

Forestry and other land uses

  • Reducing the deforestation rate by 50 percent in 2030
  • Stopping deforestation by 2045
  • Afforestation, improved forest management and forest restoration
  • Agroforestry and commercial tree plantation
  • Full implementation of the REDD+ Investment Plan by 2050
energy-icon

Energy

  • No new coal generation capacity beyond already committed projects
  • Use of natural gas as a dispatchable transition fuel
  • Investments in liquified natural gas (LNG) import, storage, and infrastructure
  • Increase in solar, hydro, biomass, and other renewables to 35 percent of the generation mix by 2050, of which 12 percent is from solar
  • Investments in grid modernization, flexibility and storage Energy efficiency measures in buildings and industry
  • Fuel switching to electricity for cooking
  • Substitution of coal in the industrial and power sector
transportation-icon

Transportation

  • More use of public transportation – 30 percent modal share in urban areas by 2050
  • Moderate penetration of electric vehicles – 70 percent for motorcycles and 40 percent for cars and urban buses by 2050
  • Increased fuel efficiency for internal combustion engine vehicles
  • Rail for freight and passengers
  • CNG penetration of 80 percent for interregional buses and 80 percent for trucks until 2050
industrial-process-icon

Industrial processes and product use

  • Clinker substitution in cement production
  • Carbon capture and storage for cement kilns
  • Use of recycled aggregate concrete
  • Increasing use of refrigerants with low global warming potential
  • Regular inspection of refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment and recovery of spent refrigerants
trash-bin-icon

Waste

  • Reducing open burning by expanding waste collection coverage to 85 percent in 2050
  • Implementing a reduce, reuse, and recycle strategy
  • Landfill gas management
  • Organic composting
  • Anaerobic digestion and wastewater treatment

Economic Benefits

Economic analysis of the LTS4CN suggests net economic benefits for the public and private sectors, in addition to adaptation and wider social and environmental benefits. These net benefits start from the first year of LTS4CN implementation and reach more than US $4.2 billion in 2050, over 2.8 percent of projected GDP. Wider social and environmental benefits including adaptation co-benefits from LTS4CN actions are estimated to be worth more than the economic benefits, at nearly $7 billion in 2050.

By 2050, the private sector is projected to invest nearly $1.4 billion each year, mostly in energy, transportation, and the forestry sectors, with some significant investment in the IPPU sector. Benefits in terms of private sector operating expenses are over six times the investment and come from a wide range of actions. Significant benefits come from energy efficiency ($3.4 billion), vehicle electrification ($1.1 billion) and rail and freight haulage ($1.1 billion). These are reduced by $800 million in opportunity costs from protecting forests from conversion to agriculture. Public capital expenditures are relatively small, with some ongoing investment in renewable energy, buses, trains, and forestry, in line with the REDD+ Implementation Plan. There are significant ongoing public operating expenses, dominated by rail and haulage ($500 million) and the loss of a fuel tax from the electrification of vehicles ($200 million). These costs are offset by operating profits from renewable energy. The net contribution of agriculture, waste, and IPPU sectors is small.

Implementing the LTS4CN will require substantial public investment over 30 years. A proposed public financing plan suggests devoting 1 percent of new public borrowing to the LTS4CN and making a small shift to divert 3 percent of public spending on economic services to LTS4CN actions. These two measures provide 40-50 percent of financing needs. The financing plan assumes that pricing policies and taxation reform in the transportation sector will be introduced gradually and cover 90 percent of transportation sector costs by 2050.

The financing plan also assumes that international climate finance will meet the remainder of public finance needs. This will cover major investment in public transportation and rail freight, support in the forestry sector, and financing for carbon capture and storage, and grid flexibility. International climate finance is essential for Cambodia to implement the LTS4CN scenario.

Public financing needs and financing plan

Public Sector Costs and Financing (USD million)

Institutional arrangements and roles and responsibilities

NCSD’s Board

  • Provide overall direction and coordination of the M&E framework
  • Approve biennial M&E/BTR reports
  • Make recommendations as to eventual adjustments of Cambodia’s CC response.

NCSD Secretariat (GDPS)

Through the Department of Climate Change and its Policy and Coordination Office, is responsible for the overall management of the framework, including:

  • Lead the process of annual update of the national M&E framework’s indicators, in close collaboration with MoP and other relevant institutions to ensure that data in the M&E framework information system is reasonably reliable and consistent. I.e. facilitates CCTWG group scoring of the institutional readiness indicators; establishes mechanisms to automatize transfer and processing of relevant quality assured data from other institutions; and provides additional QA (validation checks).
  • Prepare M&E framework biennial reports to be shared with NCSD Board, CCTWG and relevant stakeholders, and preparing summary information on annual indicators’ updates
  • Disseminate M&E framework findings to the broader public, using the climate change web portal and other means
  • Propose further development of the framework and its information system as relevant
  • Provide support to sectors to develop their respective sectoral CC M&E frameworks
  • Facilitate discussions with practitioners to discuss results and seek inputs for further development of the framework.

CCTWG

  • Participate in the update of the framework’s national institutional readiness indicators
  • Liaise with the respective member institutions and ensure sharing/transfer of relevant sector data necessary to produce framework’s indicators in a timely and effective manner (e.g. primary data required to the production of relevant indicators such as the vulnerability index; secondary data on macro-level sector indicators part of the framework)
  • Provide inputs to the M&E framework/BTR, including analytical content and policy recommendations
  • Participate in the continued development of the framework and its information system
  • Promote alignment of other CC-related M&E instruments (at all levels) with the present M&E framework and information system
  • Promote alignment of the respective sectoral M&E frameworks with the present national M&E framework and information system
  • Disseminate findings and recommendations from the national CC M&E framework results.

Ministries/agencies members of CCTWG

  • Support the respective CCTWG members to timely and effective perform their functions

Other Stakeholders

In addition to the institutions with a direct mandate for the coordination of CC response and to ministries and agencies implementing climate change responses, a number of other actors are key to the successful operationalization and use of the national M&E framework for climate change. In particular development partners, NGOs, private sector, research institutions and practitioners involved in climate change work play a critical role in providing continued feedback on the use of the national CC M&E framework information system, and thus help enhancing the country’s capacity for M&E of the climate change response.